非洲風情：埃塞俄比亞衝突與一帶一路

作為非洲第二人口大國，位於東非的埃塞俄比亞如何由饑荒和內戰，躍身成全球經濟增長最快國家？中國近年成為最大海外資金來源，千禧年起投資額逾百億美元，涵蓋公路鐵路、工業製造、電訊網絡等。當地華人數目逾廿萬，令埃塞俄比亞有「非洲的小中國」之稱。

2017年，兩國建立了全面戰略合作夥伴關係，當地成為一帶一路的重要站點。然而國內經濟不穩、債務高企，大型項目回報稍遜預期，中國出口信用保險公司調低貸款建設項目的擔保意願，總理阿比訪華更要求延期償還貸款。一帶一路被稱為新殖民主義，爭議此起彼落。

回想九十年代，埃塞俄比亞陷入內戰。反對派埃塞俄比亞革命陣線的軍隊，攻入首都亞的斯亞貝巴，推翻門格斯圖的獨裁政權。八十多個民族實行多黨制和民族聯邦制，按民族劃分的兩個自治區和九個民族州，不但擁有立法、司法及行政權，更享有民族自決和分離權。

提格雷族佔全國人口不足一成，不及最大的奧羅莫族和阿姆哈拉族。不過，提格雷州的執政黨，即提格雷人民解放陣線，屬於國內老牌政黨。它是原執政聯盟重要的組成部分，曾一度控制大部分地區。政府軍中不少高級將領，都是出身自提格雷州，在內戰扮演重要角色。

提格雷州位處於北部，與厄立特里亞接壤。兩國衝突持續，提格雷州成為軍事要塞，國家有一半軍力部署當地。直至總理阿比與厄立特里亞簽定和平協議後，才結束衝突。不過他新成立的繁榮黨，卻把提格雷人民解放陣線排除在外，加劇兩黨衝突，為發展添上不穩定性。

原定在八月的選舉，當局以疫情為由延期。但提格雷政府違抗命令，在九月舉行地方選舉，被當局定性為非法，聯邦撥款更遭暫停。提格雷政府拒絕讓政府任命的軍事將領到任，攻擊厄立特里亞機場，以長程導彈威脅政府，國內陷入僵局，也為其他國家投資添上不穩定性。

Regional Conflict in Ethiopia and the Belt and Road Initiative

Ethiopia is the second populated country in Africa. How does it end the famine and civil war, and become an emerging economy? 

China investment became the largest source. It has invested more than 10 billion dollars, from infrastructure to telecommunications. More than 200,000 Chinese work and live there. The two countries have established a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2017. 

However, the unstable economy and heavy debts earns her a negative reputation from China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation. Ethiopia plays an important role in the Belt and Road Initiative. However, whether the Initiative is a neo-colonialism is still controversial.

Ethiopia descended into a civil war. The People's Revolutionary Democratic Front invaded the capital Addis Ababa, and overthrew Mengistu Haile Mariam. As it has 80+ ethnicities, the adaptation of ethnic federalism and multi-party system was necessary.

There are 2 administrative councils and 9 regional states. They have legislative, judicial, and administrative powers, and enjoy the right of self-determination. The ruling party of Tigray Region, Tigray People's Liberation Front, played an important role in the civil war.

Tigray consists of 7% population, less than the Oromo and the Amhara, but has controlled most of the areas and nurtured many current senior generals. The northern region is an important military base towards Eritrea, where half of the national soldiers deployed.

The conflict continued until Prime Minister Abiy reached the peace agreement. However, it is said that the newly established Prosperity Party has excluded Tigray People’s Liberation Front. As a result, it intensified the conflict between the two parties.

Election was postponed due to COVID. But Tigray defied the order. Abiy criticized the illegal election and suspended federal funding. Refusing the appointed military commanders, Tigray attacked Eritrean airport as a response, which exacerbated the regional instability.

IMG: https://www.breakingviews.com/considered-view/china-and-africa-struggle-to-kick-debt-habit/