非洲風情：肯尼亞的橙色民主運動
- 2021年12月30日
- 讀畢需時 3 分鐘
已更新：2022年12月13日
肯尼亞第二任總統，丹尼爾・莫伊，來自肯尼亞非洲民族聯盟。當地的經濟自八十年代起持續增長，沒有過份依賴國際援助。當巴黎俱樂部要求受資助國家，要達到良好管治。肯尼亞表面上依從要求，引入多黨選舉。實際上卻以暴力方式，操控1992和1997年選舉。
當地民眾最氣憤之處，要數算莫伊在任期間，奉行「勝者全取」原則。他所屬的基庫尤族，掌控國內土地和資源，而盧奧、卡倫金和盧西亞等反對黨則受到忽略。莫伊2002年完成任期後，基庫尤族的吉巴基、盧奧族的奧廷嘉，合力領導全國彩虹聯盟，擊敗時任執政黨。
然而，兩人在總統選舉前，未有就奧廷嘉擔任總理一事達成共識，全國彩虹聯盟因而分裂。少數族裔擔心選舉失利，令他們在國內勢力邊緣化。奧廷嘉利用國內不滿的情緒，建立橙色民主運動重振旗鼓，領導國內頂尖的反對派領袖和優良的民兵組織。
2007年選舉前夕的民調顯示，奧廷嘉將會勝券在握。但是選舉當日，另一名反對派領袖齊貝吉，卻意外地成為「黑馬」險勝對手。奧廷嘉質疑對手選舉舞弊，隨即動員民兵，騷亂席捲全國上下，逾千人喪生。直至他獲委任為國內總理，這場肯尼亞危機才結束。
註：橙色民主運動的「橙色」，基於2005年憲法公投，以香蕉代表同意，香橙代表反對。作為反對派的橙色民主運動，成功以五成八結果推翻公投。
Kenya - The Orange Democratic Movement
Daniel arap Moi was the second president of Kenya since 1978, leading the Kenya African National Union (KANU). Economy has continued to grow. The Paris Group announced it would only support good governance in 1991.
Though the KANU government was less dependent on foreign aid, Moi allowed the reintroduction of multiparty politics, while using violence and intimidation to secure his victory in 1992 and 1997.
During his presidency, he invoked the notion of majimbo. The Kikuyu group monopolized over local land and resources. The winner-takes-all practices frustrated the opposition, such as the Luo, Kalenjin and Luhya communities.
KANU was defeated by the National Rainbow Coalition in 2002, a multi-ethnic alliance led by Raila Odinga, a Luo and Mwai Kibaki, a Kikuyu. However, the alliance failed in a pre-election deal to make Odinga as prime minister.
The coalition was fragmented. The minority feared they would never receive any resources. Odinga harnessed this rage and established the Orange Democratic Movement. Prominent opposite and militias were brought together.
Pre-election opinion polls have predicted that Odinga would win the election. However, during the Election Day in 2007, the electoral commission declared that Kibaki had retained power by a slender margin.
A wave of unrest erupted across the country, known as the Kenya Crisis. More than 1,000 people died in this civil conflict, until a power-sharing Cabinet, headed by Odinga as Prime Minister, was negotiated in March 2008.
P.S. In the constitutional referendum of 2005, “banana” and “orange” refers to supporters and opposition respectively. The opposition group was named the Orange Democratic Movement. 58% of voters rejected the proposed constitution under their campaign.
名稱：非洲民主：成功、失敗與政治改革的鬥爭 (暫譯) (Democracy in Africa: Successes, Failures, and the Struggle for Political Reform)
作者：Nic Cheeseman
年份：2015
出版地：美國
出版社：劍橋大學出版社
類別：非洲政治
評分：7/10
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