非洲風情：蘇丹軍事派系衝突何去何從？

非洲第三大國家蘇丹，位處紅海、薩赫勒地區和非洲之角接壤戰略位置。原擁豐富天然資源，數十年內戰後南蘇丹獨立，蘇丹失去石油收益；伊斯蘭教徒與達爾富爾基督徒爆發種族屠殺，及政變令國際支持和債務減免被凍結，經濟陷困和政治動盪使蘇丹裹足不前。

由於政府決定將主食麵包加價兩倍，二零一九年大型示威推翻掌權三十年的巴希爾獨裁政權。原本計劃由反政府示威的文職代表與軍方組成過渡聯盟，目標是轉型至民主政府。惟兩年後正規軍方首領布爾漢發動政變掌權，為何與同屬策動者的快速支援部隊埋下火線？

擁有經濟資產和約十二萬兵力的正規軍，為成蘇丹一九五六年獨立以來的主導力量，曾參與內戰和發動政變。而成立於二零一三年的準軍事組織「快速支援部隊」，其指揮官為達加洛，則控制境內部分金礦及擁有約十萬兵力，兩個部隊先後在推翻巴希爾及發動政變合作。

早在二零一七年，快速支援部隊就成為法定的獨立安全部隊，指揮官達加洛與兼任最高權力機構「主權委員會」布爾漢一直爭權。在成立過渡政府期間，正規軍擬吞併快速支援部隊以邁向文人管治，惹快速支援部隊質疑日後編制定位及管理指揮，導致爆發軍方派系衝突。

武裝衝突從首都喀土穆的南郊蔓延至各地，雙方互責對方先啟戰端。市內滿目瘡痍，維生資源短缺，多國派機撤僑，國際救援服務中止。雙方僅同意在開齋節停戰七十二小時，拒返談判桌。聯合國難民署料長年動盪下，蘇丹有一百一十三萬人淪為難民，不少已逃往鄰國。

蘇丹毗鄰紅海和蘇伊士運河，戰略位置使其成為大國角力場，非洲聯盟反對令局勢複雜化的外部干預。美國冀蘇丹成親華府力量，遏制中俄勢力擴張；歐盟則憂動盪引發難民潮。沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋冀蘇丹轉型能遏制伊斯蘭主義，故戰前一直與英美組成的四方聯盟斡旋。

中國和埃及均是蘇丹主要貿易伙伴，支持正規軍的埃及冀蘇丹由軍事強人管治，不欲外國軍隊屯於自家後園。俄羅斯更是吃兩家茶禮，布爾漢批准俄闢設其在非洲首個永久海軍基地換取軍事援助，僱傭兵組織瓦格納則以採礦權換取俄方軍事訓練，衝突最終會否演變成內戰？

How the Sudanese Army and RSF Divide the Country?

As the third largest country in Africa, Sudan is located in a strategic location on the Red Sea, Sahel region and the Horn of Africa. It had enriched gold reserves and agriculture potential, yet it lost oil revenues after the independence of South Sudan. The political instability in Sudan, namely the decade-long Darfur genocide and the coup d'état of 2019, has resulted in the economic sanction and subsequently hindered the country’s development.

The Bread Riot of 2019 broke out as a result of the official decision to double the price of the bread, which led to the overthrow of dictator Omar al-Bashir and his 30-year regime. The formation of a transitional government with pro-democracy leaders failed when General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan took power with another coup 2 years later. How did the tension ignite between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF)?

Owning a vast majority of economic assets, the Sudanese army with the 120,000 personnel was a dominant force since Sudanese independence in 1956. Under the leadership of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the troop has been involved in the civil wars and coups. The Mohamed Hamdan Daglo-led RSF was established in 2013 with 100,000 personnel and the control of gold mining. Both forces worked on the overthrow of dictator Omar al-Bashir.

A law legitimising the RSF as an independent security force was passed in 2017. Yet, General al-Burhan, who was the leader of Transitional Sovereignty Council in 2019, maintained an intense relationship with his main opponent Commander Hemetti. As the Deputy Head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, Commander Hemetti rejected the integration of RSF into the Sudanese army. It challenged the democratic transition in the country.

The intense clashes broke out in the capital city of Khartoum. Hundreds of thousands were killed or wounded in the residential areas. The UN High Commissioner of Refugees predicted that Sudan had hosted 1.13 million refugees before the conflict, which is one of the largest refugee populations in Africa, and some 800 thousands could soon flee Sudan. Both parties agreed to a 72-hour ceasefire over the Eid al-Fitr. Diplomats and foreign nationals were evacuated.

At the crossroads between the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, its strategic location has made it a battleground for proxy wars. The African Union strongly rejected any external interference that could complicate the situation. The Quad countries, i.e. Saudi Arabia, UAE, UK, and the US, aimed at facilitating the transition before the unrest. The western sought to curb the influence of both China and Russia, while the middle east sought to suppress the Islamic extremism.

China and Egypt are the major trading partners of Sudan. Egypt supported the Sudanese army so that the military strongman would reject any foreign troops in its geopolitical backyard. Yet, Russia supported both sides. The Sudanese army approved Russia's first permanent naval base in Africa for its military assistance, while the RSF provided mining rights in exchange for its military training. Would the armed conflict between rival factions escalate into a civil war?

IMG: https://www.newarab.com/news/sudans-burhan-gestures-towards-steps-ease-tensions