寰宇薈萃：地理囚徒，世界是怎麼改變的？

地理是一座監獄，定義國家的組成及解釋歷史的成因，亦是各地領袖努力掙脫的限制。歐洲多瑙河從黑森林流向黑海，成為沿途十八國的邊界和貿易路線；蘇格蘭獨立公投失敗，英格蘭才可維持ＧＩＵＫ的航海控制權。科技打破物理和精神的空間距離，惟地球棲息地恆久不變，地理如意識形態般主宰人類文明的進程。

Geography has been a prison of sorts. It defines what a nation is or can be, and one from which our world leaders struggled to break free. Rising in Black Forest and flowing to the Black Sea, the Danube forms natural borders along the 18 nations and their trading routes. The GIUK gap is the reason why London flew into a panic during the vote on Scottish independence. Technology may seem to overcome the distances between us in both mental and physical space, but our planet remains unchanged, pushing and pulling history as the ideas do.

（一）歐亞巨熊的「以攻為守」

前英國首相溫斯頓・邱吉爾：「這是一個包著謎團的謎語，也許存在解開謎團的鑰匙，關鍵在於俄羅斯的國家利益。」

每個國家均需緩衝區和腹地，用作外敵入侵時撤退的「縱深防禦」。首位沙皇伊凡雷帝實踐以攻為守，鞏固國內、向外拓展的理念在伊凡三世、彼得大帝及葉卡捷琳娜女皇均無停止。莫斯科四周構成巨環，從北極出發，穿過波羅的海、烏克蘭，然後喀爾巴阡山脈、黑海、高加索和裏海，繞回烏拉爾山脈再延伸至北極圈。

蘇聯解體後分裂為十五個國家，部分與俄羅斯結盟，部分親西方國家則加入北約或歐盟。一九三六年的《蒙特勒公約》賦予土耳其控制博斯普魯斯海峽，限制俄方海軍艦從黑海往返地中海的通道，尤其衝突期間不被允許。即使俄方成功穿越愛琴海，在進入大西洋或印度洋前，分別需要獲准穿越直布羅陀海峽或蘇伊士運河。

俄羅斯需依法履行保護責任，「俄羅斯國民」強制受保。若克里姆林宮認為合適，他們將被定義為以俄語作母語的人。任何成員國遭武裝攻擊均被視為對所有成員國的攻擊，北約需根據憲章第五條展開救援。惟歐洲兩成五的天然氣和石油依靠俄羅斯供應，距離莫斯科越近，其依賴性就越高，減少某些國家就俄方侵略行為的外交選項。

(1) “Attack as Defense” of the Russian Bear

"It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma… but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.” – Winston Churchill, Former Prime Minister of the UK

Every country needs a buffer zone and a hinterland, aka a strategic depth to fall back to during invasions. Since Ivan the Terrible, he put the concept of “attack as defense” into practice. The expansion was unstoppable even under the regime of his grandson Ivan the Great, Peter the Great, or Empress Catherine the Great. Now there was a huge ring around Moscow. Starting at the Arctic, it came down through the Baltic region, across Ukraine, Carpathians, Black Sea, Caucasus, and Caspian, swinging back around to Urals, which stretched up to the Arctic Circle.

When the Soviet Union broke apart, it split into 15 countries. Some ally with Russia, while some pro-Western ones are in NATO or EU. The Montreux Convention of 1936 entitled Turkey to control the Bosporus, which restricts Russian access from Black Sea into the Mediterranean. Even with permission to navigate Aegean Sea, Moscow needs to gain access from the Strait of Gibraltar and Suez Canal to reach the Atlantic Ocean or Indian Ocean. Russian cannot get out of the Baltic Sea at war, due to the Skagerrak Strait owned by Denmark and Norway; even the ships made it, the route to the Atlantic goes through the GIUK gap in the North Sea.

The Kremlin has a law that compels the government to protect “ethnic Russians.” When it suits them, they will be defined as people who speak Russian as their first language. As in the position of NATO, armed aggression against any of alliance members will trigger Article 5, which shall be considered an attack against them all. Why do some tend to be slower to criticize the Kremlin? Around 25% of Europe’s gas and oil comes from Russia, the closer a country is to Moscow, the greater its dependency. In turn, it reduces their foreign policy options.

（二）中華人民共和國「不可分離的部分」

若要西行波斯灣地區，中國必須經過越南與菲律賓，才能駛經馬六甲海峽，惟相關國家與美國均有外交和軍事聯繫，故南海九段線爭議須謹慎處理。橫跨戈壁沙漠的逾四千公里邊界，成為蒙古天然防禦線；俄羅斯位處於亞洲的遠東地區則幅員遼闊、人口稀少，加上俄烏戰事後西方連番制裁，中國則與北方兩國維持夥伴關係。

與十多國接壤的國土，在國內亦面對主權爭議。位處第一島鏈中樞的台灣，美國頒布《臺灣關係法》與其建立軍事聯繫。作為「中國水塔」的西藏屬黃河、長江和湄公河的源頭，失守或有利印度建立基地。至於兩度宣佈獨立建國的新疆，則與八個國家接壤，更是核武試驗場，故中國需要堅守三處均是不可分離的國土。

(2) "An Inalienable Part" of China

To go westward to the Gulf, China must pass Vietnam and the Philippines, and get through the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia, which used to make overtures and link diplomatically to the US. It explains the controversy of the South Sea. The massive Gobi Desert straddling in the 4000 km-long border is a natural defensive line of Mongolia. The Far East of Russia is a huge territory with a tiny population. Under the Western sanctions against the Ukraine War, Russia (and Mongolia) maintain a favorable partnership.

Domestically, Taiwan is located at the center of the first island chain. Thus, the US promulgated the "Taiwan Relations Act" to establish military ties with it. Known as “China’s Water Tower”, Tibet is the source of 3 great rivers: the Yellow, Yangtze, and Mekong. If China loses her control, India might attempt to do so. Xinjiang has twice declared independence. It not only borders 8 countries, and is home to nuclear weapons testing sites. As a result, China regards them as an inalienable part of their country.

（三）北美「自由國度」的建立

《獨立宣言》：「人人生而平等，造物主賦予他們若干不可剝奪的權利，其中包括生命權、自由權和追求幸福的權利。」

一七七七年爆發美國獨立戰爭，十三殖民地翌年宣佈獨立，《獨立宣言》成為建國根基。一八零三年，華盛頓政府僅付一千五百萬美元就購得法屬路易斯安那，使「西進運動」國土倍增；與西班牙簽訂《橫貫大陸條約》亦解決兩國邊界爭端。隨著近兩年的美墨戰爭結束，迫使剛獨立的墨西哥割讓德州及加州等地。

在十九世紀，美國發表有關美洲控制權的「門羅主義」；及近代奪回地盤的「重返亞太戰略」。這軍事上稱為「力量投射」方針，有別於建國初期佔領加勒比海及吞併夏威夷島；舉例在一九零七年，十六艘海軍戰艦在十四個月內，先後停靠巴西、澳洲、日本、意大利和埃及港口，展示其經濟及軍事實力。

(3) The “Purchase” of Land of Freedom

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. – The US Declaration of Independence

The 13 Colonies declared independence after the American Revolutionary War in 1777. The Declaration of Independence became the foundation of the land. In 1803, it cost only USD 15 million for the Louisiana Purchase, which doubled the size in the “Westward Expansion”. The Washington government resolved the border dispute with Spain after the agreement of the “Transcontinental Treaty”. After the Mexican-American War in nearly 2 years, the independent Mexico lost Texas, California, etc. forcefully.

The Monroe Doctrine of 1823 showcased how Latin America became the American backyard and sphere of influence; while the Pivot to Asia represented a significant shift in its foreign policy. In 1907, 16 navy battleships, known as “the Great White Fleet, deployed on 20 ports, including Brazil, Australia, Japan, Italy and. Egypt within 14 months. For the world’s greatest economic and military power, such a force projection already began in the 19th century, differing from the extension to the Caribbean and the annexation of Hawaii.

（四）非洲與拉丁美洲的「水資源戰爭」

古希臘歷史學家希羅多德：「埃及就是尼羅河，尼羅河就是埃及。」

尼羅河源於「非洲水塔」埃塞俄比亞青尼羅河，青尼羅河與白尼羅河在蘇丹首都喀土穆交匯，流經努比亞沙漠進入埃及。二零一一年，亞的斯亞貝巴宣布與中國耗資四十八億美元，在蘇丹邊境青尼羅河建造埃塞俄比亞復興大壩，為國內逾一億人口供電；惟蓄水或導致下游尼羅河水資源告急，埃及與蘇丹均反對工程。

美國打造逾八十公里的巴拿馬運河，從大西洋到太平洋航程節省逾萬公里。自美軍九九年撤兵，巴拿馬運河管理局遂正式掌控。二零一二年，中國信威集團在香港成立「尼加拉瓜運河開發投資有限公司」，稱在尼加拉瓜投資五百億美元，打造連接加勒比海與太平洋的新運河，將會打破美巴壟斷，惟竣工仍是遙遙無期。

(4) “Water Conflict” in Africa and Latin America

“Egypt is the Nile, and the Nile is Egypt.” – Herodotus , Ancient Greece Historian.

Ethiopia is called the water tower of Africa due to its high elevation and frequent rainfall. The majority of Egyptian water begins in the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, and meets the White Nile in Khartoum, Sudan, before flowing through the Nubian Desert and into Egypt.

In 2011, Addis Ababa announced a joint project with China, investing USD 4.8 billion to build the “Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam” on the Blue Nile near the Sudan. The dam will create electricity for over 100 million people, yet reduce the flow into Egypt drastically.

The US took over the project from France in 1904, and opened the Panama Canal a decade later, which saved the ships a 10000-kilometer journey from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean. ​​The canal has been controlled by Panama since 1999 but safeguarded alongside the US navy.

A Hong Kong businessman Wang Jing funded $50 billion for the “Nicaragua Grand Canal” project in 2012. The over-200-kilometer canal in Nicaragua connects the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean, in order to break the monopoly. Yet, the completion is far behind schedule.

地球這片棲息地，一直塑造著人類的文明，

幾乎塑造每個角落的戰爭、權力、政治及社會發展。

作者，提姆・馬歇爾

"The land on which we live has always shaped us.

It has shaped the wars, the power, politics, and social development

of the peoples that now inhabit nearly every part of the earth."

– Tim Marshall, Prisoners of Geography

名稱：用十張地圖看懂全球政經局勢 (Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Explain Everything About the World)

作者：提姆・馬歇爾（陳琇玲、威治、朱詩迪譯）

年份：2015

出版地：英國、美國

出版社：商周出版

類別：社會科學、地緣政治

評分：6.5/10

Title: Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Explain Everything About the World

Author: Tim Marshall

Year: 2015

Region: UK, USA

Publisher: Elliott & Thompson, Scribner

Genre: Social Science, Geopolitics

Score: 6.5/10